Comparing the spreadsheet data, the conclusion was, although some volunteers came close in guessing the correct number of marbles, no one guessed correctly. Guesses ranged from as low as 300 to as high as 3,000. A seemingly random data set. Next, the marbles are emptied on a carpet and counted. After collecting a large number of post-it-notes, the guesses are entered into a spreadsheet. Volunteers are asked to simply observe the jar, and write down their guesses on a post-it-note. The half gallon sized mason jar is now brimming with marbles, and the metal lid is twisted on, sealing the jar. The individual then attends a local carnival and sets up a booth to solicit guesses as to the total amount of marbles contained in the mason jar. The individual fills a large mason jar with marbles. To illustrate the power of large crowds, a YouTuber decides to conduct an experiment. A final anecdote to explain my work lies in a simple experiment I observed some time ago on YouTube. Suffice to say, my work can produce some scary accurate forecasts based on the participation of the crowds in those markets. Each day it involves millions of participants, exchanging large volumes of assets for vast sums of money. It’s the law large crowds, and the larger the crowd, the more accurate the forecast. The S&P 500 contains one of the largest crowds assembled. One could say I took my mother’s advice to heart, and watch what they do, not what they say. I study those patterns across the many markets I cover and over both the short and extremely long periods of time. I watch the patterns market participants create with their buys and sells. That means stock market news, events, corporate earnings and all external data is of little concern to me as I carry out my day-to-day analysis on the S&P 500. I never take those external events into account while analyzing any of the markets I cover. I practice a form of market analysis that is exclusively focused on price action. I guess you could sum up my work by styling me as a pattern analyst. Please indulge me while I provide some background and explain. That means buying most market-based asset classes, and holding them, will not produce the desired results of the past. However, my analysis shows that the market will essentially become dead money for at least the next decade or two. Now before you draw a hasty conclusion, and think this article is about me warning you, the reader, a 1987 stock market crash scenario is on the horizon, I’ll caution you. The cycle I am referring to is one in which none of the current market participants have experienced. During this period, many of old correlations and metrics used to determine the value of the stock market, assets in general, ( housing, for example) will break down and end up becoming less useful to those who fundamentally analyze assets, stocks and the markets for a living. If I am correct in my analysis, this will unfold over a long period of time. This time frame, I refer to, is meant to be a reset in expectations. From interest rates, to income inequality. The reason is, my prevailing analytical thesis is, the markets are now entering a long-term cycle in which many aspects of our economy will be reverting to their respective long-term mean. I’ve always considered myself an optimist. However, nowadays, I find nothing to be optimistic about with respect to the US stock markets. The same optimistic money managers sponsor those articles or those TV shows. Would your business buy an ad on a show or in a magazine that constantly gave a negative outlook on your business? However, therein lies the disconnect between what is really going on in today’s market, versus what the average person reads and hears in the financial news. Would you fork over your hard-earned savings based on such a story? Not a successful plan of attack for a person trying to raise capital if you ask me.

Can you imagine being a money manager and your entire sales pitch is some negative diatribe about how the market is going down and will continue to go down ? So much of how our markets work is based on optimism.

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